Economics financial calculation Assignment Solved

Introduction

The report is to create five year forecast of financial statement of the company with the given assumption of the current years and future years.

Backward calculation process has to use to prepare the Financial Statements i.e Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow statement along with Ratios for the year 2019, and on the basis of 2019 statements and given assumptions, Forecast will be done for Year 2020 to 2024.

Data Available

There is no specific Data available other than Sales data assumption, so first sales has to be calculated and accordingly everything as per sales ratios can be generated. As per assumption following table is available for the market share for the industry and for the company:-





ABC’s

Industry (units)Market ShareGrowth RateShareIn Unit
Sales




Growth70,00,000.0033%5%15%10,50,000
Mature1,00,00,000.0050%2%10%10,00,000
Decline30,00,000.0017%0%5%1,50,000
Total2,00,00,000.00


22,00,000

As per assumption the product Decline will be discontinued after 5 years.

Assignment Assumption



Ratios/Statistics Net profit margin Asset turnover (x:1) Return on assets Total debt to equity (x:1) Return on equity (ROE) Accounts payable days Gross margin External debt to equity Return on sales Receivable days Inventory days WC excluding cash (x:1) Assets to equity (x:1) Dupont ROE Normal Dividend payout Cost of debt Cash tax rate Accounting tax rate Market statistics: Risk free rate Market rate expectation Beta Shares outstanding Capital Contributed (M$) Sustainable growth rate Cost of capital (WACC) Equity costs CAPM Share price (2019) Rating Agency Criteria2019 8.94% 2.0 17.88% 1 35.8% 34.50 45.0% 67.0% 8.94% 20 15 1 2 35.8% 40% 5% 26.50% 37.00% 4% 10% 1.6 20,000,000 40 3.0% 9.4% 13.6% 13.53Subsequent Year Calculate in subsequent years Calculate in subsequent years Calculate in subsequent years Calculate in subsequent years Calculate in subsequent years Stays same all years Calculate in subsequent years Stays same all years Calculate in subsequent years Stays same all years Stays same all years Calculate in subsequent years Calculate in subsequent years Calculate in subsequent years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years (in millions) Long term mature company Stays same all years Stays same all years Do valuation Credit Rating Ratios AAA A < 1 times > 1 < 3 times > 10% 5 to 10% >10 times >6 to 10 times >20% >10% to 20% up 3% flatAT ROS Lev ROS X AT X Lev

Calculation

Additional Assumptions:-

Additional Capital expenses done will have average life of 10 years with straight line method of Depreciation

Few of the items are balancing figures like capital expenditure in the statement

Other Current Assets and other Current liabilities are increased by 5 %

SALES     
  ABC’s  2019
 Industry (units)ShareIn UnitPriceTotal Sales
Sales     
Growth70,00,000.0015%10,50,000100$10,50,00,000
Mature1,00,00,000.0010%10,00,00075$7,50,00,000
Decline30,00,000.005%1,50,00050$75,00,000
Total2,00,00,000.00 22,00,000 18,75,00,000.00
      
COGS(Balancing Figure)   10,31,25,000.00
Gross Profit @45%    8,43,75,000.00
      
Depreciation    10,90,000.00
      
Fixed Cost    2,67,53,750.00
      
NET PROFIT    5,65,31,250.00

Sales forecast

 20202021
 UnitPriceTotalUnitPriceTotal
Sales      
Growth$11,55,000$105$12,12,75,000$12,70,500$110$14,00,72,625
Mature$10,20,000$75$7,65,00,000$10,40,400$75$7,80,30,000
Decline$1,50,000$38$56,25,000$1,50,000$25$37,50,000
Total  20,34,00,000.00  22,18,52,625.00
       
COGS  11,39,04,000.00  12,64,55,996.25
Gross Profit @45%  8,94,96,000.00  9,53,96,628.75
       
Depreciation  10,90,000.00  10,90,000.00
       
Fixed Cost  2,67,53,750.002,67,53,750.00
       
NET PROFIT6,16,52,250.006,75,52,878.75
       
 202220232024
 UnitPriceTotalUnitPriceTotalUnitPriceTotal
Sales         
Growth$13,97,550$116$15,40,79,888$15,37,305$122$16,94,87,876$16,91,036$128$21,58,23,743
Mature$10,61,208$75$7,95,90,600$10,82,432$75$8,11,82,412$11,04,081$75$8,28,06,060
Decline$1,50,000$13$37,50,000$1,50,000$0$37,50,000$1,50,000$0$0
Total  23,74,20,488  25,44,20,288  29,86,29,803.26
          
COGS  13,77,03,882.75  15,01,07,970.07  17,91,77,881.95
Gross Profit @45%  9,97,16,604.75  10,43,12,318.18  11,94,51,921.30
          
Depreciation  10,90,000.00  10,90,000.00  10,90,000.00
          
Fixed Cost2,67,53,750.002,67,53,750.002,67,53,750.00
          
NET PROFIT7,18,72,854.757,64,68,568.189,16,08,171.30
          

Working notes:

Fixed Cost Calculation





FC=EBIT/GM*100





33%=EBIT/84375000*100




EBIT=87375000*33%


2,78,43,750.00

Fixed Assets Calculation – Depreciation





MillionAverage useful Life
Cost10.910 years




Depreciation Per year
10.9




Balance life
5 years




Accumulated Depreciation
54.5




Balance Depreciation

54.5
Fixed Asset

54.5
Depreciation of next five Years 2020-2024
Old Assets

10.9
Capital Expenditure38.4410 year3.84
Assumption




TotalDep14.74

Statement to calculate the cash flow and other balancing for 2019

Format for financial statements (all cash models must be same ending cash) 
(in millions of dollars) 
Cash flow models 
A. EBITDA model 
EBITDA57.62
–  Capital expenditures-38.44
–  Interest paid-1.57
– Cash taxes-16.71
– Net working capital incr *0
+ External debt issued31.37
– Dividends paid-11.68
Net cash flows for year20.59
Opening cash3.10
Ending cash23.69
B. Net income Model  
Net Income16.76 
+ Depreciation10.90 
+ Change in deferred taxes2.74 
Change in working capital
 
Change in other operating items
 

 

 
Cash flow from operations (CFO)30.40 
 
 
– Cash flow from investments (CFI)29.5Balancing Figure
Cash flow from financing (CFF):
 
– Dividends-11.68 
+ External debt31.4 
Total CFF
 
Net cash flows for year20.59 
Opening cash3.1 
Ending cash23.69 
C. Direct Method 
Net sales187.50
Costs of sales-103.13
Fixed costs-26.75
– Interest expense-1.57
– Taxes-16.71
– Capital expenditures-38.44
+ External debt31.37
– Dividends-11.68
Net cash flows for the year20.59
Opening cash3.1
Ending cash23.69

On the basis of above Assumptions the following forecast is done for financial statement of the company, there are other calculations which are on the basis of the ratio given for 2019 and other also


CurrentForecast
Balance sheet201920202021202220232024
       
Cash23.6949.2272.0697.98125.51160.86
Accounts receivable10.2711.1512.1613.0113.9416.36
Inventory4.244.685.205.666.177.36
Other current assets0.951.001.051.101.161.22
Total current assets39.1466.0590.46117.75146.77185.80
Capital assets54.5054.5054.5054.5054.5054.50
Other long term assets0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Total assets93.65120.55144.96172.25201.27240.30
       
Accounts payable9.7510.7711.9513.0214.1916.94
Deferred tax liability2.005.324.835.405.806.22
Other current liabilities3.713.904.094.294.514.74
Total current liabilities15.4619.9820.8722.7124.5027.89
External debt31.3740.3549.7960.0070.9285.22
Total debt46.8360.3370.6682.7095.42113.11
Capital contributed40.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.00
Retained earnings6.8220.2234.3149.5565.8687.19
Equity46.8260.2274.3189.55105.86127.19
Liabilities & Equity93.65120.55144.96172.25201.27240.30
Income statementCurrentForecast
Net sales187.50203.40221.85237.42254.42298.63
Cost of goods sold103.13113.90126.46137.70150.11179.18
Gross Margin84.3889.5095.4099.72104.31119.45
Fixed costs:      
Depreciation10.9014.7414.7414.7414.7414.74
Other fixed costs26.7526.7526.7526.7526.7526.75
EBIT46.7248.0053.9058.2262.8277.96
Interest expense1.572.022.493.003.554.26
EBT45.1545.9851.4155.2259.2773.70
Tax expense17.2917.0119.0220.4321.9327.27
Dividend Pay out11.106.718.919.3910.1610.87
Net income16.7622.2723.4825.4027.1835.56
Dividend Declared6.718.919.3910.1610.8714.22

Retained Earnings statement is used to carry forward the balances to Balance Sheet

Statement of retained earnings201920202021202220232024
Opening retained earnings-3.26.8620.2234.3149.5565.86
Net Income16.7622.2723.4825.4027.1835.56
Less Dividend-6.71-8.91-9.39-10.16-10.87-14.22
Ending retained earnings6.857520.2234.3149.5565.8687.19

Assumption is taken that Dividend Declared in given as payout in next financial year.

Working Capital Position of the company

Answer 3

The Company’s Working capital position has improved, as can be Seen in the Balance sheet, Company has grown because only the sales has increased but also the sales price of high end product i.e Mature has also increased which has resulted good inflow in the business and has resulted with working capital improvement

The company will accumulate or reduce cash over the forecast, why

Answer 4

The company is accumulating the cash , as currently there is no capital expenditure done due to no new product is launched and company is gaining from the Current product line, so it will be accumulating the cash for may be future investments .

Key ratios to the investor are deteriorating or improving, why

Answer 5

It is mixed, as Return on Equity has improved whereas the few of them have been static, but as the profit is going to increase and share price forecast is also that it will improve from investors point of view , it is good investment option. But Return on Assets has started reducing because of withdrawal of product Decline, so the asset utilization has also reduced



Forecast 



Ratios/Statistics201920202021202220232024Assumption /Guideline
Net profit margin8.94%10.95%10.59%10.70%10.68%11.91%Calculate in subsequent years
Asset turnover (x:1)21.71.51.41.31.2Calculate in subsequent years
Return on assets17.88%18.47%16.20%14.74%13.51%14.80%Calculate in subsequent years
Total debt to equity (x:1)11.000.950.920.900.89Calculate in subsequent years
Return on equity (ROE)35.80%18%16%15%14%15%Calculate in subsequent years
Accounts payable days34.534.534.534.534.534.5Calculate in subsequent years
Gross Margin45.00%44%43.00%42.00%41.00%40.00%Stays same all years, reduces by 1 %
External debt to equity67.00%67.00%67.00%67.00%67.00%67.00%Calculate in subsequent years
Return on sales8.94%11%11%11%11%12%Stays same all years
Receivable days202020202020Stays same all years
Inventory days151515151515Stays same all years
WC excluding cash (x:1)13.314.335.195.996.66Calculate in subsequent years
Assets to equity (x:1)22.001.951.921.901.89Calculate in subsequent years
Dupont ROE35.80%36.98%31.60%28.36%25.68%27.96%Calculate in subsequent years
Normal Dividend payout40%40%40%40%40%40%Stays same all years
Cost of debt5%5%5%5%5%5%Stays same all years
Cash tax rate26.50%26.50%26.50%26.50%26.50%26.50%Stays same all years
Accounting tax rate37.00%37.00%37.00%37.00%37.00%37.00%Stays same all years
Market statistics:       
Risk free rate4%4%4%4%4%4%Stays same all years
Market rate expectation10%10%10%10%10%10%Stays same all years
Beta1.61.61.61.61.61.6Stays same all years
Shares outstanding2,00,00,0002,00,00,0002,00,00,0002,00,00,0002,00,00,0002,00,00,000Stays same all years
Capital Contributed (M$)404040404040Stays same all years (in millions)
Sustainable growth rate3.00%     Long term mature company
Cost of capital (WACC)9.40%9.40%9.40%9.40%9.40%9.40%Stays same all years
Equity costs CAPM13.60%13.60%13.60%13.60%13.60%13.60%Stays same all years
Share price (2019)13.5320.412.316.317.218.6Do valuation

The company is hold, buy or Sell

Answer

At this stage as per the forecast the company is growing and has a sustainable growth rate of 3% which indicates that one should sell it and in future it will give good returns. Secondly, investors can invest in the company but it extra –ordinary cash dividend of $50 M is paid then surely there is risk that in future if company has to invest in new products e.g Decline has already obsolete and it new product has to be launched for which company needs cash. It will have to borrow the funds increasing the cost of capital and debt equity ratio will also disturb which will affect the share price and return on equity. Ultimately it will impact the shareholder’s only.

ALUATION MODEL

A financial valuation model will include the analysis of the capital structure of the company, predicting the market value and the future earnings prospect. For this, the cash flow statements for the last five years, financial ratios and the market price of the stock. These information will be used for financial valuation.

Fundamental Analysis

In fundamental analysis, all fundamental macros and micros are taken into consideration in association with financial statement and balance sheet of a firm.

Constant perpetual growth model

In this model, it is assumed that dividend of a firm increases at a constant rate to perpetuity and pay-out ratio remains constant.

Value Per Share= Expected Rate of Return X Paid up Equity Value

Normal Rate of Return

Equity Value = Outstanding Shares X Current Share Price

= 2000000*13

= 2600000000

Stock Valuation (Basic) For 2020

P0 = D 0 (1 + g)/(i – g)
0= Most recent per-share dividend$11.10
i= Required return (discount rate)9.40%
g= Rate of growth( Market rate Expectation)10%
P0Value of one share of common stock= $11.10(1 + .10) /(.940 – .10) = $$20.35

Similarly for other financial Years from 2020 -2024 is also calculated as:-

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Share price13.5320.412.316.317.218.6
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