Economics financial calculation Assignment Solved

Introduction

The report is to create five year forecast of financial statement of the company with the given assumption of the current years and future years.

Backward calculation process has to use to prepare the Financial Statements i.e Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow statement along with Ratios for the year 2019, and on the basis of 2019 statements and given assumptions, Forecast will be done for Year 2020 to 2024.

Data Available

There is no specific Data available other than Sales data assumption, so first sales has to be calculated and accordingly everything as per sales ratios can be generated. As per assumption following table is available for the market share for the industry and for the company:-

				ABC’s
	Industry (units)	Market Share	Growth Rate	Share	In Unit
Sales
Growth	70,00,000.00	33%	5%	15%	10,50,000
Mature	1,00,00,000.00	50%	2%	10%	10,00,000
Decline	30,00,000.00	17%	0%	5%	1,50,000
Total	2,00,00,000.00				22,00,000

As per assumption the product Decline will be discontinued after 5 years.

Assignment Assumption

Ratios/Statistics Net profit margin Asset turnover (x:1) Return on assets Total debt to equity (x:1) Return on equity (ROE) Accounts payable days Gross margin External debt to equity Return on sales Receivable days Inventory days WC excluding cash (x:1) Assets to equity (x:1) Dupont ROE Normal Dividend payout Cost of debt Cash tax rate Accounting tax rate Market statistics: Risk free rate Market rate expectation Beta Shares outstanding Capital Contributed (M$) Sustainable growth rate Cost of capital (WACC) Equity costs CAPM Share price (2019) Rating Agency Criteria

2019 8.94% 2.0 17.88% 1 35.8% 34.50 45.0% 67.0% 8.94% 20 15 1 2 35.8% 40% 5% 26.50% 37.00% 4% 10% 1.6 20,000,000 40 3.0% 9.4% 13.6% 13.53

Subsequent Year Calculate in subsequent years Calculate in subsequent years Calculate in subsequent years Calculate in subsequent years Calculate in subsequent years Stays same all years Calculate in subsequent years Stays same all years Calculate in subsequent years Stays same all years Stays same all years Calculate in subsequent years Calculate in subsequent years Calculate in subsequent years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years Stays same all years (in millions) Long term mature company Stays same all years Stays same all years Do valuation Credit Rating Ratios AAA A < 1 times > 1 < 3 times > 10% 5 to 10% >10 times >6 to 10 times >20% >10% to 20% up 3% flat

AT ROS Lev ROS X AT X Lev

Calculation

Additional Assumptions:-

Additional Capital expenses done will have average life of 10 years with straight line method of Depreciation

Few of the items are balancing figures like capital expenditure in the statement

Other Current Assets and other Current liabilities are increased by 5 %

SALES
		ABC’s			2019
	Industry (units)	Share	In Unit	Price	Total Sales
Sales
Growth	70,00,000.00	15%	10,50,000	100	$10,50,00,000
Mature	1,00,00,000.00	10%	10,00,000	75	$7,50,00,000
Decline	30,00,000.00	5%	1,50,000	50	$75,00,000
Total	2,00,00,000.00		22,00,000		18,75,00,000.00

COGS	(Balancing Figure)				10,31,25,000.00
Gross Profit @45%					8,43,75,000.00

Depreciation					10,90,000.00

Fixed Cost					2,67,53,750.00

NET PROFIT					5,65,31,250.00

Sales forecast

	2020	2021
	Unit	Price	Total	Unit	Price	Total
Sales
Growth	$11,55,000	$105	$12,12,75,000	$12,70,500	$110	$14,00,72,625
Mature	$10,20,000	$75	$7,65,00,000	$10,40,400	$75	$7,80,30,000
Decline	$1,50,000	$38	$56,25,000	$1,50,000	$25	$37,50,000
Total			20,34,00,000.00			22,18,52,625.00

COGS			11,39,04,000.00			12,64,55,996.25
Gross Profit @45%			8,94,96,000.00			9,53,96,628.75

Depreciation			10,90,000.00			10,90,000.00

Fixed Cost			2,67,53,750.00	–	–	2,67,53,750.00

NET PROFIT	–	–	6,16,52,250.00	–	–	6,75,52,878.75

	2022	2023	2024
	Unit	Price	Total	Unit	Price	Total	Unit	Price	Total
Sales
Growth	$13,97,550	$116	$15,40,79,888	$15,37,305	$122	$16,94,87,876	$16,91,036	$128	$21,58,23,743
Mature	$10,61,208	$75	$7,95,90,600	$10,82,432	$75	$8,11,82,412	$11,04,081	$75	$8,28,06,060
Decline	$1,50,000	$13	$37,50,000	$1,50,000	$0	$37,50,000	$1,50,000	$0	$0
Total			23,74,20,488			25,44,20,288			29,86,29,803.26

COGS			13,77,03,882.75			15,01,07,970.07			17,91,77,881.95
Gross Profit @45%			9,97,16,604.75			10,43,12,318.18			11,94,51,921.30

Depreciation			10,90,000.00			10,90,000.00			10,90,000.00

Fixed Cost	–	–	2,67,53,750.00	–	–	2,67,53,750.00	–	–	2,67,53,750.00

NET PROFIT	–	–	7,18,72,854.75	–	–	7,64,68,568.18	–	–	9,16,08,171.30

Working notes:

Fixed Cost Calculation

FC=	EBIT/GM*100

33%=	EBIT/84375000*100

EBIT=	87375000*33%
	2,78,43,750.00
Fixed Assets Calculation – Depreciation

	Million	Average useful Life
Cost	10.9	10 years

Depreciation Per year		10.9

Balance life		5 years

Accumulated Depreciation		54.5

Balance Depreciation			54.5
Fixed Asset			54.5
Depreciation of next five Years 2020-2024
Old Assets			10.9
Capital Expenditure	38.44	10 year	3.84
Assumption
		TotalDep	14.74

Statement to calculate the cash flow and other balancing for 2019

Format for financial statements (all cash models must be same ending cash)
(in millions of dollars)
Cash flow models
A. EBITDA model
EBITDA	57.62
– Capital expenditures	-38.44
– Interest paid	-1.57
– Cash taxes	-16.71
– Net working capital incr *	0
+ External debt issued	31.37
– Dividends paid	-11.68
Net cash flows for year	20.59
Opening cash	3.10
Ending cash	23.69

B. Net income Model
Net Income	16.76
+ Depreciation	10.90
+ Change in deferred taxes	2.74
Change in working capital
Change in other operating items

Cash flow from operations (CFO)	30.40

– Cash flow from investments (CFI)	29.5	Balancing Figure
Cash flow from financing (CFF):
– Dividends	-11.68
+ External debt	31.4
Total CFF
Net cash flows for year	20.59
Opening cash	3.1
Ending cash	23.69

C. Direct Method
Net sales	187.50
Costs of sales	-103.13
Fixed costs	-26.75
– Interest expense	-1.57
– Taxes	-16.71
– Capital expenditures	-38.44
+ External debt	31.37
– Dividends	-11.68
Net cash flows for the year	20.59
Opening cash	3.1
Ending cash	23.69

On the basis of above Assumptions the following forecast is done for financial statement of the company, there are other calculations which are on the basis of the ratio given for 2019 and other also

	Current	Forecast
Balance sheet	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024

Cash	23.69	49.22	72.06	97.98	125.51	160.86
Accounts receivable	10.27	11.15	12.16	13.01	13.94	16.36
Inventory	4.24	4.68	5.20	5.66	6.17	7.36
Other current assets	0.95	1.00	1.05	1.10	1.16	1.22
Total current assets	39.14	66.05	90.46	117.75	146.77	185.80
Capital assets	54.50	54.50	54.50	54.50	54.50	54.50
Other long term assets	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total assets	93.65	120.55	144.96	172.25	201.27	240.30

Accounts payable	9.75	10.77	11.95	13.02	14.19	16.94
Deferred tax liability	2.00	5.32	4.83	5.40	5.80	6.22
Other current liabilities	3.71	3.90	4.09	4.29	4.51	4.74
Total current liabilities	15.46	19.98	20.87	22.71	24.50	27.89
External debt	31.37	40.35	49.79	60.00	70.92	85.22
Total debt	46.83	60.33	70.66	82.70	95.42	113.11
Capital contributed	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	40.00
Retained earnings	6.82	20.22	34.31	49.55	65.86	87.19
Equity	46.82	60.22	74.31	89.55	105.86	127.19
Liabilities & Equity	93.65	120.55	144.96	172.25	201.27	240.30

Income statement	Current	Forecast
Net sales	187.50	203.40	221.85	237.42	254.42	298.63
Cost of goods sold	103.13	113.90	126.46	137.70	150.11	179.18
Gross Margin	84.38	89.50	95.40	99.72	104.31	119.45
Fixed costs:
Depreciation	10.90	14.74	14.74	14.74	14.74	14.74
Other fixed costs	26.75	26.75	26.75	26.75	26.75	26.75
EBIT	46.72	48.00	53.90	58.22	62.82	77.96
Interest expense	1.57	2.02	2.49	3.00	3.55	4.26
EBT	45.15	45.98	51.41	55.22	59.27	73.70
Tax expense	17.29	17.01	19.02	20.43	21.93	27.27
Dividend Pay out	11.10	6.71	8.91	9.39	10.16	10.87
Net income	16.76	22.27	23.48	25.40	27.18	35.56
Dividend Declared	6.71	8.91	9.39	10.16	10.87	14.22

Retained Earnings statement is used to carry forward the balances to Balance Sheet

Statement of retained earnings	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Opening retained earnings	-3.2	6.86	20.22	34.31	49.55	65.86
Net Income	16.76	22.27	23.48	25.40	27.18	35.56
Less Dividend	-6.71	-8.91	-9.39	-10.16	-10.87	-14.22
Ending retained earnings	6.8575	20.22	34.31	49.55	65.86	87.19

Assumption is taken that Dividend Declared in given as payout in next financial year.

Working Capital Position of the company

Answer 3

The Company’s Working capital position has improved, as can be Seen in the Balance sheet, Company has grown because only the sales has increased but also the sales price of high end product i.e Mature has also increased which has resulted good inflow in the business and has resulted with working capital improvement

The company will accumulate or reduce cash over the forecast, why

Answer 4

The company is accumulating the cash , as currently there is no capital expenditure done due to no new product is launched and company is gaining from the Current product line, so it will be accumulating the cash for may be future investments .

Key ratios to the investor are deteriorating or improving, why

Answer 5

It is mixed, as Return on Equity has improved whereas the few of them have been static, but as the profit is going to increase and share price forecast is also that it will improve from investors point of view , it is good investment option. But Return on Assets has started reducing because of withdrawal of product Decline, so the asset utilization has also reduced

		Forecast
Ratios/Statistics	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	Assumption /Guideline
Net profit margin	8.94%	10.95%	10.59%	10.70%	10.68%	11.91%	Calculate in subsequent years
Asset turnover (x:1)	2	1.7	1.5	1.4	1.3	1.2	Calculate in subsequent years
Return on assets	17.88%	18.47%	16.20%	14.74%	13.51%	14.80%	Calculate in subsequent years
Total debt to equity (x:1)	1	1.00	0.95	0.92	0.90	0.89	Calculate in subsequent years
Return on equity (ROE)	35.80%	18%	16%	15%	14%	15%	Calculate in subsequent years
Accounts payable days	34.5	34.5	34.5	34.5	34.5	34.5	Calculate in subsequent years
Gross Margin	45.00%	44%	43.00%	42.00%	41.00%	40.00%	Stays same all years, reduces by 1 %
External debt to equity	67.00%	67.00%	67.00%	67.00%	67.00%	67.00%	Calculate in subsequent years
Return on sales	8.94%	11%	11%	11%	11%	12%	Stays same all years
Receivable days	20	20	20	20	20	20	Stays same all years
Inventory days	15	15	15	15	15	15	Stays same all years
WC excluding cash (x:1)	1	3.31	4.33	5.19	5.99	6.66	Calculate in subsequent years
Assets to equity (x:1)	2	2.00	1.95	1.92	1.90	1.89	Calculate in subsequent years
Dupont ROE	35.80%	36.98%	31.60%	28.36%	25.68%	27.96%	Calculate in subsequent years
Normal Dividend payout	40%	40%	40%	40%	40%	40%	Stays same all years
Cost of debt	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	Stays same all years
Cash tax rate	26.50%	26.50%	26.50%	26.50%	26.50%	26.50%	Stays same all years
Accounting tax rate	37.00%	37.00%	37.00%	37.00%	37.00%	37.00%	Stays same all years
Market statistics:
Risk free rate	4%	4%	4%	4%	4%	4%	Stays same all years
Market rate expectation	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	Stays same all years
Beta	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6	Stays same all years
Shares outstanding	2,00,00,000	2,00,00,000	2,00,00,000	2,00,00,000	2,00,00,000	2,00,00,000	Stays same all years
Capital Contributed (M$)	40	40	40	40	40	40	Stays same all years (in millions)
Sustainable growth rate	3.00%						Long term mature company
Cost of capital (WACC)	9.40%	9.40%	9.40%	9.40%	9.40%	9.40%	Stays same all years
Equity costs CAPM	13.60%	13.60%	13.60%	13.60%	13.60%	13.60%	Stays same all years
Share price (2019)	13.53	20.4	12.3	16.3	17.2	18.6	Do valuation

The company is hold, buy or Sell

Answer

At this stage as per the forecast the company is growing and has a sustainable growth rate of 3% which indicates that one should sell it and in future it will give good returns. Secondly, investors can invest in the company but it extra –ordinary cash dividend of $50 M is paid then surely there is risk that in future if company has to invest in new products e.g Decline has already obsolete and it new product has to be launched for which company needs cash. It will have to borrow the funds increasing the cost of capital and debt equity ratio will also disturb which will affect the share price and return on equity. Ultimately it will impact the shareholder’s only.

ALUATION MODEL

A financial valuation model will include the analysis of the capital structure of the company, predicting the market value and the future earnings prospect. For this, the cash flow statements for the last five years, financial ratios and the market price of the stock. These information will be used for financial valuation.

Fundamental Analysis

In fundamental analysis, all fundamental macros and micros are taken into consideration in association with financial statement and balance sheet of a firm.

Constant perpetual growth model

In this model, it is assumed that dividend of a firm increases at a constant rate to perpetuity and pay-out ratio remains constant.

Value Per Share= Expected Rate of Return X Paid up Equity Value

Normal Rate of Return

Equity Value = Outstanding Shares X Current Share Price

= 2000000*13

= 2600000000

Stock Valuation (Basic) For 2020

P₀ = D ₀ (1 + g)/(i – g)
D ₀	= Most recent per-share dividend	$11.10
i	= Required return (discount rate)	9.40%
g	= Rate of growth( Market rate Expectation)	10%
P₀	= Value of one share of common stock= $11.10(1 + .10) /(.940 – .10) = $	$20.35

Similarly for other financial Years from 2020 -2024 is also calculated as:-

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Share price

13.53

20.4

12.3

16.3

17.2

18.6

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