TOPIC: PROBABILISTIC ACTIVITY TIMES
zInfinity (aka Zinfinity) is a new-age space exploration company with a mission to commercially exploit the near-Earth objects in the outer space. It is building reusable rockets and space equipment that can be used to mine asteroids and comets in the solar system and bring back the precious metals and minerals to the Earth to make profit. Thanks to Swikileaks, we got hold of some confidential information about zInfinity’s next secret project. While the details of individual activities are not available, we know that the project has 12 key activities. Each activity involves uncertainty, but the engineers at zInfinity have calculated most optimistic, most pessimistic and most likely time for each activity. We also know the relationships among these activities. Even with this limited information, we want to find out about the completion time and various probabilities associated with this project. See the work breakdown structure (in Weeks) and network diagram given below.
WBS IN WEEKS
| Activity ID | Predecessor | Optimistic Time (a) | Most Probable Time (m) | Pessimistic Time (b) |
| A | None | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| B | A | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| C | A | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| D | A | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| E | B,D | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| F | C | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| G | E,F | 4 | 6 | 8 |
| H | C | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| I | G | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| J | H | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| K | H | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| L | I,J,K | 2 | 3 | 4 |
NETWORK DIAGRAM
Short Case Report Requirements:
Based on the information given above, prepare a Short Case Report that address the followings:
1. What are the expected time and variance for each of the 12 activities?
2. Which activities are critical and what is the critical path? What is the total project completion time?
3. What is the project variance and project standard deviation?
4. What is the probability that zInfinity will be able to complete the project in 30 weeks?
5. What is the probability that zInfinity will be able to complete the project in 20 weeks?
6. What is the probability that the project will take between 20 and 30 weeks?
7. What is the probability that the project will take longer than 25 weeks?
8. What is the completion time by which there is 99% certainty that the project is completed? 9. What is the completion time by which there is 90% certainty that the project is completed? 10. What is the completion time by which there is 75% certainty that the project is completed?
PROJECT MANAGEMENT ADDITIONAL INSTRUCTIONS:
In your report, only answers are not sufficient. You must also show all your calculations as well as probability graphs for probabilities that led you to these answers. Do and show all your calculations with four decimal points. If typed up, it should be in Ariel (or Helvetica or equivalent font), 10-point size, Single spaced, 1” margin on all sides.
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