48370:RoadsandTransportEngineering

AssessmentTask4:

Transport Modelling and Operations Report – Application of the 4-step Model Due: 27 May 2022 (11:59PM)

Thisisanindividualassignmentworth35%ofyouroverallgrade.

Please answer the following questions and present your work in a report format clearly including your name and student ID on the cover page.

Submit a PDF of your report into the Assignment Activity shown on the UTS Canvaspagefor48370 by27May2022 (11:59PM).

State all assumptions applied to determine solutions. Ensure you presentmethodology,calculations,drawingsandsolutionsclearlyandlegibly.

Late Submission Penalties: (10% will be deducted per day)

Traveldemandforecastingof“Hawkins”

The community of Hawkins (a fictitious urban region) is concerned about a growing population, increasing demands for more efficient transport services and the desire to increase their regions economic productivity in the competitive Australian environment. The Hawkins study area is currently home to 80,000 residents and supports employment for the local community and surrounding regions of Brennertown (East of Hawkins) and Hargrove (South of Hawkins). The mayor of Hawkins, Mayor Kline, has asked the transport consultancy firm that you’re employed at to provide forecasts of the travel demand across the community.

Figure 1 presents the study area of Hawkins highlighting the key transport infrastructure. The primary highways connecting Hawkins with other regions are the Interstate Eleven (I-11), Interstate Twelve (I-12) and the Interstate Alpha (I-Alpha). The other labelled roads serve as important arterial roads and corridors within the region. Hawkins and surrounds are also serviced by a metro train public transport service. The three stations (Starcourt Mall Station, Hawkins Station and Hawkins Airport Station) within the study area are indicated in Figure 1. The CBD area of Hawkins is also highlighted (orange), signifying the key economic centre of the region.

In order to forecast travel demand for the region, your consultancy must develop a 4-step travel model. Hawkins has been separated into the 4 zones presented in Figure 2 as a necessary step to generate and distribute trips throughout the region. The primary land uses of each of the zones are briefly described as follows:

• Zone 1: Contains the regional airport (Hawkins Airport) and a number of industrial complexes mixed with parkland. The land use density is relatively low throughout the zone with a relatively low residential population. This zone contains the interchange between I-Alpha and I-12 as well as the complex intersection of Nancy Street and the I-12.
• Zone 2: Mixed use zone with rural and industrial properties present on the northern half of the zone, while low to medium density residential properties exist near Wheeler Way. This zone contains the interchange between I-Alpha and I-11.
• Zone 3: The main economic driver of Hawkins. Contains the CBD located at the north-western corner of the Zone and mixed high density land-use extends until the I-

11. East of the I-11 is primarily low and medium density residential area with a number of parks along the highway.

• Zone 4: Low and medium density residential area with a major commercial development, “Starcourt Mall” (currently being expanded for completion in 2030). Thedevelopment is expected to generate 5,000 jobs in the commercial and retailsector to help both the people of Hawkins as well as the neighbouring region of Hargrove.

In addition to the expansion of Starcourt Mall, there is a major residential development, “Palace Arcade Hills”, bounded by William Drive, Wheeler Way, Main Street and Joyce Street (highlighted in blue in Figure 1, within Zone 4). This is expected to provide 6,000additionalhouseholds in Hawkins by2030.

Figure1:HawkinsStudyArea

Figure2:Hawkinsdefinedtravelzonesforthedevelopmentofthe4-steptransportmodel

As a project team member, you have been asked to solve the following problems to assist in the development of the 4-step transport model for Hawkins.

Problem 1: Trip Generation (25 marks)

In order to understand the travel impacts associated with the Starcourt Mall expansion and the Palace Arcade Hills development, it is critical to estimate the changes to the traffic generated throughout Hawkins. Hawkins Council have conducted a observational trip generation survey of 25 residences as a proxy for the expected population in Palace Arcade Hills development (see Table 1)

Table1:TravelSurveyData(fortripgenerationmodeldevelopment)

Observation	Income(𝐼)	HouseholdSize(𝐻)	Number ofVehiclesOwned(𝑉)	# of weekday trips produced between 5am and 9am (𝑇)
1	90000	3	1	2
2	45000	1	1	1
3	110000	5	1	3
4	100000	4	2	2
5	70000	3	1	3
6	100000	4	2	2
7	50000	2	1	1
8	70000	2	1	2
9	90000	3	1	3
10	50000	2	1	1
11	60000	1	1	1
12	45000	1	1	0
13	60000	2	2	1
14	70000	3	2	2
15	80000	2	1	1
16	70000	3	2	3
17	60000	2	2	2
18	70000	1	1	1
19	50000	3	2	2
20	60000	3	2	2
21	55000	2	2	1
22	125000	5	3	3
23	55000	3	1	1
24	80000	4	2	4
25	65000	3	1	2

Multiple linear regression modelling (linear regression that uses several explanatory variableto predict values for a response variable) is a method that can be applied to estimate trip productions and attractions of a region.

Use the information in Table 1 to conduct a multiple linear regression procedure to obtain a trip generation model (trip production model) relating the number of daily trips (𝑇) with income (𝐼), household size (𝐻) and number of vehicles owned (𝑉).

1. What would be the dependent and independent variables of the trip production model?

(2 marks)

2. Upon completing the linear regression, whatarethecoefficientsofthe

independent variables? Which variables are significant in the model? What is the goodness of fit of the model developed, is it a suitable model? Explain your answer using a statistical measure.

(4 marks)

3. Do the values of the coefficients align with the key principles underlying tripgeneration? Clearly justify your explanation.

(4 marks)

4. Based on the information provided to date and the process used to define the trip production model in part a), is this an appropriate model to use? Clearly justify your statement reflecting on the variables considered and data used.

(5 marks)

Your team has continued developing the trip generation model and have confirmed the following equations for future use.

𝑇_𝑝= −𝟎𝟎. 𝟐𝟐 + 𝟎𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎⁽𝐼⁾ + 𝟎𝟎. 𝟑𝟑⁽𝑉⁾ + 𝟎𝟎. 𝟏𝟏𝟎𝟎⁽𝐻⁾ + 𝟏𝟏. 𝟖𝟖(W) Equation 1

𝑇_𝐴= 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟎𝟎 + 𝟏𝟏. 𝟏𝟏⁽𝐼⁾ + 𝟎𝟎. 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏⁽𝐴_𝑂⁾ + 𝟎𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎(𝐴_𝘙) Equation 2 Where:

• 𝑇_𝑝 = trips produced
• 𝑇_𝐴 = trips attracted
• Household Size: number of people in each household (𝐻)
• Household Income ($’000s) (𝐼)
• Number of Vehicles per household (𝑉)
• Number of Workers per household (W)
• 𝐴_𝑂𝑂 = total area of office space (m²)
• 𝐴_𝑅 = total area of retail space (m²)

5. Given the household and demographic data presented in Table 2 (following page),calculatethetotalnumberofAMPeaktripsproducedandattractedin each of the zones in Hawkins (rounded up to the nearest integer). Comment on the validity ofthe results. Do the zones of Hawkins attract more trips than they produce? Are the values obtained consistent with the population and land use described in the brief? Clearly explain your response.

(5 marks)

Table2:CurrentzonalhouseholddataforHawkins

Zones	House- holds	Average Household Income (‘000s)	Average Number of Vehicles per Household	Average Household size	Average Number of Workers Per Household	Office Space (m2)	Retail Space (m2)
Zone 1	2,000	70.2	1.8	3.9	1.1	25,000	5,000
Zone 2	7,500	85.4	1	3.3	1.3	50,000	8,000
Zone 3	12,500	95.8	1.2	2.2	1.8	350,000	150,000
Zone 4	9,500	94.5	1.5	2.1	1.5	100,000	200,000

6. Using Equation 1 and 2, determine the impact that the proposed developments will have on trip generation during the AM Peak period. Assume all the values in Table 2 remain the same, except for the following changes:
   • There are an additional 6,000 households resulting from the Palace Arcade Hills development.
   • The Starcourt Mall expansion will result in an additional 10,000 m² office space and 25,000 m² retail space.
   • The average household size increases in the following zones:

1. Zone 2: Household Size = 3.5
2. Zone 3: Household Size = 2.5

Describe the impact of the proposed developments by considering the change in population, change in productions and attractions and the sections of the road network that will be face increasing congestion.

(5marks)

Problem 2: Trip Distribution (25 marks)

Table 3, Table 4 and Table 5 present the relevant data necessary to develop a gravity model for Hawkins to determine the future trip distribution throughout the study area. Do note Table3 presents ALL productions and attractions related to both local (within Hawkins) and non-local (outside of Hawkins) trips.

Table3:Productionsand Attractionsineachzone

Zones	Productions	Attractions
1	5,500	6,500
2	21,200	10,500
3	46,000	64,500
4	50,000	29,000

Table4:CalibratedFrictionFactorsbetweeneachzone

Zone	1	2	3	4
1	0.85	0.42	0.75	0.38
2	0.45	0.65	1.14	1.21
3	0.65	0.71	1.15	1.48
4	0.51	0.65	1.4	1.31

Table5:CalibratedK-factorsbetweeneachzone

Zone	1	2	3	4
1	0.75	0.91	0.99	0.95
2	0.85	1.02	1.31	1.20
3	0.60	1.52	1.45	0.99
4	1.11	1.21	1.37	1.70

In addition to the above data, the following information describes the expected number of local trips that will be produced by and attracted to each zone within Hawkins.

• Zone 1: Only 1/4 of the trips produced in Zone 1 travels to Zones in Hawkins and 4,000 trips attracted to zone 1 are locally produced (by Zone 2, 3, 4).
• Zone 2: Exactly 1/2 of the trips produced in Zone 2 travels to Zones in Hawkins and 6,000 trips are attracted from Zone 1, 3 and 4.
• Zone 3: 14,000 trips produced in Zone 3 travel to Zones in Hawkins and 14,000 trips are also attracted to Zone 3 from the remaining local zones.
• Zone 4: Only a small portion of trips produced in Zone 4 are expected to travel locally (just 20%) while 8,000 trips are attracted to Zone 4 from the other local zones.

1. Based on the information above, what proportion of total productions and totalattractions are locally generated trips? Describe what this signifies in terms of employment and education opportunities in Hawkins.

(5 marks)

2. What are the production and attraction values necessary to determine the localtrip distribution (between the 4 zones identified in Figure 2) in Hawkins? Complete the following table template below to present your solution.

Zones	Total Productions	Total Attractions	Local Productions	Local Attractions
1	5,500	6,500
2	21,200	10,500
3	46,000	64,500
4	50,000	29,000

(2 marks)

3. Use the gravity model to distribute the AM peak morning trips for Hawkins to anaccuracy of 1%. Present your converged trip distribution table with values rounded to the nearest whole number. Clearly describe the process, and assumptions made, while applying the gravity model. Does the converged origin-distribution matrix provide any information about mode choice within the four local zones?

(8 marks)

4. What Origin-Destination pairing (Zone-to-Zone) has the greatest travel demandduring the morning peak period, is this a logical result? Provide a brief (half- page maximum) discussion on the potential transport impacts of the estimated trip distribution, referring to both the public and private transport network presented in Figure 1.

(10marks)

Problem 3: Mode Choice (25 marks)

Hawkins has 3 primary modes of transport available to users for zone to zone travel: private automobile (car) (𝐶), bus (𝐵) and metro trains (𝑀) and each have the following properties.

• Private automobile
  • A study regarding the cost of owning a vehicle in Hawkins has been conducted in the past. The average cost for registering and maintaining a vehicle per trip is $1.50 (150 cents). This could be considered as the out of pocket cost for using a private automobile for all trips using this mode.
  • On average, parking takes 5 minutes in Hawkins.
  • Zone to zone average private automobile travel times are presented in Table 6.
• Bus
  • The average waiting time for a bus service in Hawkins is 10 minutes.
  • Zone to zone average bus travel times are presented in Table 7 (note this includes time for access and transfer, if required).
  • Bus fares between zones are presented in Table 7 (signifying the out-of- pocket costs).
• Metro Train
  • The average waiting time for a metro service in Hawkins is 2 minutes.
  • Zone to zone average metro train travel times are presented in Table 9 (note this includes time for access and transfer, if required).
  • Metro train fares between zones are presented in Table 10.
  • No intrazonal trips are made using this mode of transport.

Table6:Privateautomobiletraveltimematrix

Private Automobile Travel Times (mins)
	Zone 1	Zone 2	Zone 3	Zone 4
Zone 1	5	4	10	9
Zone 2	5	3	12	18
Zone 3	14	15	8	15
Zone 4	12	20	14	9

Table7:Bustraveltimematrix

Bus Travel Times (mins)
	Zone 1	Zone 2	Zone 3	Zone 4
Zone 1	10	12	15	15
Zone 2	20	11	21	25
Zone 3	18	20	20	24
Zone 4	15	25	20	17

Table8:Busfarematrix(outofpocketcosts)

Bus Fares (cents)
	Zone 1	Zone 2	Zone 3	Zone 4
Zone 1	35	40	50	50
Zone 2	65	40	70	80
Zone 3	60	65	65	80
Zone 4	50	80	65	55

Table9:MetroTraintraveltimematrix

Metro Train Travel Times (mins)
	Zone 1	Zone 2	Zone 3	Zone 4
Zone 1		12	18	26
Zone 2	15		6	14
Zone 3	21	6		8
Zone 4	25	14	8

Table10:MetroTrainfaresmatrix(outofpocketcosts)

Metro Train Fares (cents)
	Zone 1	Zone 2	Zone 3	Zone 4
Zone 1		40	140	180
Zone 2	65		100	140
Zone 3	140	100		100
Zone 4	180	140	100

A multinomial logit model is applied to quantify the mode choice between “private automobile”, “bus” and “metro train” within Hawkins. The calibrated utility function for all three modes has the structure presented in Equation 3;

𝑈_𝑘 = 𝐴_{𝑘,𝒊𝒊} − 𝟎𝟎. 𝟑𝟑𝟎𝟎X_{𝟏𝟏,𝒊𝒊} − 𝟎𝟎. 𝟐𝟐𝟎𝟎X_{𝟐𝟐,𝒊𝒊} − 𝟎𝟎. 𝟐𝟐𝟏𝟏X_𝟑𝟑 − 𝟎𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏X_{𝟎𝟎,𝒊𝒊} Equation 3 Where: 𝐴_{𝑘,𝑖𝑖} = Calibration constant, (𝐴_𝑘,𝐶 = 𝟎𝟎,𝐴_𝑘,𝐵 = −𝟎𝟎. 𝟎𝟎,𝐴_𝑘,𝑀 = −𝟎𝟎. 𝟐𝟐 )

X_1,𝑖𝑖 = Zone to zone waiting times for each mode of transport, “𝑖𝑖”

X₂ = Zone to zone travel times for each mode of transport, “𝑖𝑖”

X₃ = Parking time allocated for zone to zone travel (private automobile mode only)

X₄ = Zone to zone “out of pocket costs” for each mode of transport, “𝑖𝑖”

1. Using a spreadsheet application and the information above, determine theprobability of choosing “private automobile”, “bus” and “metro train” within Hawkins by applying the multinomial logit model. Clearly describe the steps inapplying the model and also any assumptions made and present final probability values using summary tables of zone to zone probabilities for each mode of transport.

(8 marks)

2. Use your result from Problem 2 to determine the number of trips per mode for Hawkins. Similar to Problem 3 part a), present final trip numbers using summary tables of zone to zone trips for each mode of transport. What mode of transportconsists the most number of trips, is this logical given the base data provided?Comment on the validity of the results comparing the accessibility to eachmode and the demand estimated by the mode choice mode. Clearly explain your response.

(7 marks)

3. Mayor Kline of Hawkins is disappointed with uptake of bus services in the community and has reorganised the budget to make buses free of charge (out of pocket cost = 0). What impact does this have on the mode choice? How many additional bustrips will be present based on an application of the multinomial logit model?Discuss (in point form) one advantage and one disadvantage of the mayor’s proposal from a transport operations and infrastructure perspective.

(5 marks)

4. Given the proposed developments, Mayor Kline is also concerned about the number of private automobile trips that are occurring in Hawkins which can exacerbate the existing congestion levels. Therefore, in addition to the free bus service, the mayor announces congestion pricing which increases the “private automobile” out of pocket costs to $4.50 (450 cents) for trips entering or exiting the economic Zones of 3 and 4. What impact does this have on the mode choice? What are the new demandsfor each mode based on an application of the multinomial logit model? Discuss (in point form) one advantage and one disadvantage of the mayor’s proposal from a transport operations and infrastructure perspective.

(5marks)

Problem 4: Traffic Assignment (25 marks)

Main Street East and Main Street West are one-way roads within the CBD of Hawkins as shown in Figure 3. Eastbound traffic along Main Street can only use Main Street East to reach Hawkins Station and other land uses to the east of the CBD. Due to the development of Palace Arcade Hills, there will be further traffic demands placed on Main Street, and Mayor Kline is concerned about the traffic on Main Street, particularly in the Eastbound direction. A possible solution is to convert both Main Street East and Main Street West into two-way roads to increase road capacity.

Figure3:MapofrouteforEastboundTrafficalongMainStreet.

Table 11 presents the properties of each link in the existing network relevant to Eastbound travel along Main Street.

Table11: Linkproperties ofexisting infrastructure(𝗑_𝐴 representsthelinkvolumeon link“𝐴”)

Link	Road Name	Direction of Travel	Capacity (veh/hr)	Link Volume (veh/hr)	Link Travel Time	Link Cost (travel time) Function (minutes)
1	Main Street	Eastbound	1800	𝑥1	𝑡1	𝑥1 𝑡1 = �180 � + 3 0
2	Main Street East	Eastbound	1200	𝑥2	𝑡2	𝑥2 𝑡2 = �120 � + 8 0
3	Main Street	Eastbound	1800	𝑥3	𝑡3	𝑥3 𝑡3 = �180 � + 3 0
4	Main Street West	Westbound	1200	𝑥4	𝑡4	𝑥4 𝑡4 = �120 � + 8 0

The proposed change will allow Eastbound traffic to travel along Main Street West and also utilise Hawkins Highway northbound. However, the right turn from Main Street East into Hawkins Highway in the southbound direction will be banned due to safety concerns and excessive congestion southbound along Hawkins Highway.

Assess the traffic conditions and potential future traffic assignment for vehicles travelling Eastbound along Main Street.

1. If the existing peak demand for Eastbound traffic along Main Street is 1200 vehicles/hour (for vehicles travelling from Node A to Node D), what are the currentlink and route travel times for journeys from Node A to Node D? What is thevolume to capacity ratio for each link of this journey? Is this currently aproblemforHawkins?Provide a clear statement and reasoning.

(5 marks)

2. The forecasted Eastbound traffic demand along Main street is 1800 vehicles/hour (for vehicles travelling from Node A to Node D) once the proposed developments are completed , what will the future link and route travel times be for journeys fromNode A to Node D? What is the volume to capacity ratio of each link of thisjourney?WillitbeaproblemforHawkinsinthefuture?Provide a clear statement and reasoning.

(5 marks)

3. In order to assess the proposal put forward by Mayor Kline where both Main Street East and Main Street West become two-way roads, it is necessary to collect further information about the network as in this context there will be more routes for users to choose. Table 12 presents the additional data required to make an assessment about the Eastbound traffic conditions. Node A is identical to Node A in Figure 3, however Node D is now labelled as Node F due to the change in infrastructure.

Draw the node and link network diagram given the information in Table 12 andidentify all possible routes that could be used by motorists travellingEastbound along Main Street. Note that looped routes (routes containing the same link twice) should not be considered.

(5 marks)

Table12: Linkpropertiesofproposed infrastructure (𝗑_𝐴 represents thelinkvolumeonlink“𝐴”)

Link Label	Node Label	Road Name	Direction of Travel	Capacity (veh/hr)	Link Volume (veh/hr)	Link Travel Time	Link Cost (travel time) Function (minutes)
1	A to B	Main Street	Eastbound	1800	𝑥1	𝑡1	𝑥1 𝑡1 = �180 � + 3 0
2	B to C	Main Street East	Eastbound	800	𝑥2	𝑡2	𝑥2 𝑡2 = �80 � + 3.5 0
3	B to D	Main Street West	Eastbound	600	𝑥3	𝑡3	𝑥3 𝑡3 = �60 � + 1.5 0
4	C to E	Main Street East	Eastbound	800	𝑥4	𝑡4	𝑥4 𝑡4 = �80 � + 2 0
5	D to E	Main Street West	Eastbound	600	𝑥5	𝑡5	𝑥5 𝑡5 = �60 � + 3.5 0
6	E to F	Main Street	Eastbound	1800	𝑥6	𝑡6	𝑥6 𝑡6 = �180 � + 3 0
7	D to C	Hawkins Highway	Northbound	2000	𝑥7	𝑡7	𝑥7 𝑡7 = �200 � + 1 0

4. Considering that the forecasted Origin to Destination demand remains as 1800 vehicles/hour for the time period being assessed, and using the principle of “User Equilibrium”, determinetheequilibriumconditionsbetween Node A and Node F.
   1. Clearly present all demand conservation equations and route travel time equilibrium equations. (3marks)
   2. Solve the system of equations and present link volumes, link travel times and route travel times under equilibrium conditions. Will the Mayor’s proposal improve future traffic conditions? Clearly justify your response taking into consideration travel time and any other important factors.

(7 marks)