48370: Roads and Transport Engineering

48370:RoadsandTransportEngineering

AssessmentTask4:

Transport Modelling and Operations Report – Application of the 4-step Model Due: 27 May 2022 (11:59PM)

Thisisanindividualassignmentworth35%ofyouroverallgrade.

Please answer the following questions and present your work in a report format clearly including your name and student ID on the cover page.

Submit a PDF of your report into the Assignment Activity shown on the UTS Canvaspagefor48370 by27May2022 (11:59PM).

State all assumptions applied to determine solutions. Ensure you presentmethodology,calculations,drawingsandsolutionsclearlyandlegibly.

Late Submission Penalties: (10% will be deducted per day)

Traveldemandforecastingof“Hawkins”

The community of Hawkins (a fictitious urban region) is concerned about a growing population, increasing demands for more efficient transport services and the desire to increase their regions economic productivity in the competitive Australian environment. The Hawkins study area is currently home to 80,000 residents and supports employment for the local community and surrounding regions of Brennertown (East of Hawkins) and Hargrove (South of Hawkins). The mayor of Hawkins, Mayor Kline, has asked the transport consultancy firm that you’re employed at to provide forecasts of the travel demand across the community.

Figure 1 presents the study area of Hawkins highlighting the key transport infrastructure. The primary highways connecting Hawkins with other regions are the Interstate Eleven (I-11), Interstate Twelve (I-12) and the Interstate Alpha (I-Alpha). The other labelled roads serve as important arterial roads and corridors within the region. Hawkins and surrounds are also serviced by a metro train public transport service. The three stations (Starcourt Mall Station, Hawkins Station and Hawkins Airport Station) within the study area are indicated in Figure 1. The CBD area of Hawkins is also highlighted (orange), signifying the key economic centre of the region.

In order to forecast travel demand for the region, your consultancy must develop a 4-step travel model. Hawkins has been separated into the 4 zones presented in Figure 2 as a necessary step to generate and distribute trips throughout the region. The primary land uses of each of the zones are briefly described as follows:

  • Zone 1: Contains the regional airport (Hawkins Airport) and a number of industrial complexes mixed with parkland. The land use density is relatively low throughout the zone with a relatively low residential population. This zone contains the interchange between I-Alpha and I-12 as well as the complex intersection of Nancy Street and the I-12.
  • Zone 2: Mixed use zone with rural and industrial properties present on the northern half of the zone, while low to medium density residential properties exist near Wheeler Way. This zone contains the interchange between I-Alpha and I-11.
  • Zone 3: The main economic driver of Hawkins. Contains the CBD located at the north-western corner of the Zone and mixed high density land-use extends until the I-

11. East of the I-11 is primarily low and medium density residential area with a number of parks along the highway.

  • Zone 4: Low and medium density residential area with a major commercial development, “Starcourt Mall” (currently being expanded for completion in 2030). Thedevelopment is expected to generate 5,000 jobs in the commercial and retailsector to help both the people of Hawkins as well as the neighbouring region of Hargrove.

In addition to the expansion of Starcourt Mall, there is a major residential development, “Palace Arcade Hills”, bounded by William Drive, Wheeler Way, Main Street and Joyce Street (highlighted in blue in Figure 1, within Zone 4). This is expected to provide 6,000additionalhouseholds in Hawkins by2030.

Figure1:HawkinsStudyArea

Figure2:Hawkinsdefinedtravelzonesforthedevelopmentofthe4-steptransportmodel

As a project team member, you have been asked to solve the following problems to assist in the development of the 4-step transport model for Hawkins.

Problem 1: Trip Generation (25 marks)

In order to understand the travel impacts associated with the Starcourt Mall expansion and the Palace Arcade Hills development, it is critical to estimate the changes to the traffic generated throughout Hawkins. Hawkins Council have conducted a observational trip generation survey of 25 residences as a proxy for the expected population in Palace Arcade Hills development (see Table 1)

Table1:TravelSurveyData(fortripgenerationmodeldevelopment)

ObservationIncome(𝐼)HouseholdSize(𝐻)Number ofVehiclesOwned(𝑉)# of weekday trips produced between 5am and 9am (𝑇)
190000312
245000111
3110000513
4100000422
570000313
6100000422
750000211
870000212
990000313
1050000211
1160000111
1245000110
1360000221
1470000322
1580000211
1670000323
1760000222
1870000111
1950000322
2060000322
2155000221
22125000533
2355000311
2480000424
2565000312

Multiple linear regression modelling (linear regression that uses several explanatory variableto predict values for a response variable) is a method that can be applied to estimate trip productions and attractions of a region.

Use the information in Table 1 to conduct a multiple linear regression procedure to obtain a trip generation model (trip production model) relating the number of daily trips (𝑇) with income (𝐼), household size (𝐻) and number of vehicles owned (𝑉).

  1. What would be the dependent and independent variables of the trip production model?

(2 marks)

  1. Upon completing the linear regression, whatarethecoefficientsofthe

independent variables? Which variables are significant in the model? What is the goodness of fit of the model developed, is it a suitable model? Explain your answer using a statistical measure.

(4 marks)

  1. Do the values of the coefficients align with the key principles underlying tripgeneration? Clearly justify your explanation.

(4 marks)

  1. Based on the information provided to date and the process used to define the trip production model in part a), is this an appropriate model to use? Clearly justify your statement reflecting on the variables considered and data used.

(5 marks)

Your team has continued developing the trip generation model and have confirmed the following equations for future use.

𝑇𝑝= −𝟎𝟎. 𝟐𝟐 + 𝟎𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎(𝐼) + 𝟎𝟎. 𝟑𝟑(𝑉) + 𝟎𝟎. 𝟏𝟏𝟎𝟎(𝐻) + 𝟏𝟏. 𝟖𝟖(W) Equation 1

𝑇𝐴= 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟎𝟎 + 𝟏𝟏. 𝟏𝟏(𝐼) + 𝟎𝟎. 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏(𝐴𝑂) + 𝟎𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎(𝐴𝘙) Equation 2 Where:

  • 𝑇𝑝 = trips produced
  • 𝑇𝐴 = trips attracted
  • Household Size: number of people in each household (𝐻)
  • Household Income ($’000s) (𝐼)
  • Number of Vehicles per household (𝑉)
  • Number of Workers per household (W)
  • 𝐴𝑂𝑂 = total area of office space (m2)
  • 𝐴𝑅 = total area of retail space (m2)
  1. Given the household and demographic data presented in Table 2 (following page),calculatethetotalnumberofAMPeaktripsproducedandattractedin each of the zones in Hawkins (rounded up to the nearest integer). Comment on the validity ofthe results. Do the zones of Hawkins attract more trips than they produce? Are the values obtained consistent with the population and land use described in the brief? Clearly explain your response.

(5 marks)

Table2:CurrentzonalhouseholddataforHawkins

ZonesHouse- holdsAverage Household Income (‘000s)Average Number of Vehicles per HouseholdAverage Household sizeAverage Number of Workers Per HouseholdOffice Space (m2)Retail Space (m2)
Zone 12,00070.21.83.91.125,0005,000
Zone 27,50085.413.31.350,0008,000
Zone 312,50095.81.22.21.8350,000150,000
Zone 49,50094.51.52.11.5100,000200,000
  1. Using Equation 1 and 2, determine the impact that the proposed developments will have on trip generation during the AM Peak period. Assume all the values in Table 2 remain the same, except for the following changes:
    • There are an additional 6,000 households resulting from the Palace Arcade Hills development.
    • The Starcourt Mall expansion will result in an additional 10,000 m2 office space and 25,000 m2 retail space.
    • The average household size increases in the following zones:
  1. Zone 2: Household Size = 3.5
  2. Zone 3: Household Size = 2.5

Describe the impact of the proposed developments by considering the change in population, change in productions and attractions and the sections of the road network that will be face increasing congestion.

(5marks)

Problem 2: Trip Distribution (25 marks)

Table 3, Table 4 and Table 5 present the relevant data necessary to develop a gravity model for Hawkins to determine the future trip distribution throughout the study area. Do note Table3 presents ALL productions and attractions related to both local (within Hawkins) and non-local (outside of Hawkins) trips.

Table3:Productionsand Attractionsineachzone

ZonesProductionsAttractions
15,5006,500
221,20010,500
346,00064,500
450,00029,000

Table4:CalibratedFrictionFactorsbetweeneachzone

Zone1234
10.850.420.750.38
20.450.651.141.21
30.650.711.151.48
40.510.651.41.31

Table5:CalibratedK-factorsbetweeneachzone

Zone1234
10.750.910.990.95
20.851.021.311.20
30.601.521.450.99
41.111.211.371.70

In addition to the above data, the following information describes the expected number of local trips that will be produced by and attracted to each zone within Hawkins.

  • Zone 1: Only 1/4 of the trips produced in Zone 1 travels to Zones in Hawkins and 4,000 trips attracted to zone 1 are locally produced (by Zone 2, 3, 4).
  • Zone 2: Exactly 1/2 of the trips produced in Zone 2 travels to Zones in Hawkins and 6,000 trips are attracted from Zone 1, 3 and 4.
  • Zone 3: 14,000 trips produced in Zone 3 travel to Zones in Hawkins and 14,000 trips are also attracted to Zone 3 from the remaining local zones.
  • Zone 4: Only a small portion of trips produced in Zone 4 are expected to travel locally (just 20%) while 8,000 trips are attracted to Zone 4 from the other local zones.
  1. Based on the information above, what proportion of total productions and totalattractions are locally generated trips? Describe what this signifies in terms of employment and education opportunities in Hawkins.

(5 marks)

  1. What are the production and attraction values necessary to determine the localtrip distribution (between the 4 zones identified in Figure 2) in Hawkins? Complete the following table template below to present your solution.
ZonesTotal ProductionsTotal AttractionsLocal ProductionsLocal Attractions
15,5006,500

221,20010,500

346,00064,500

450,00029,000

(2 marks)

  1. Use the gravity model to distribute the AM peak morning trips for Hawkins to anaccuracy of 1%. Present your converged trip distribution table with values rounded to the nearest whole number. Clearly describe the process, and assumptions made, while applying the gravity model. Does the converged origin-distribution matrix provide any information about mode choice within the four local zones?

(8 marks)

  1. What Origin-Destination pairing (Zone-to-Zone) has the greatest travel demandduring the morning peak period, is this a logical result? Provide a brief (half- page maximum) discussion on the potential transport impacts of the estimated trip distribution, referring to both the public and private transport network presented in Figure 1.

(10marks)

Problem 3: Mode Choice (25 marks)

Hawkins has 3 primary modes of transport available to users for zone to zone travel: private automobile (car) (𝐶), bus (𝐵) and metro trains (𝑀) and each have the following properties.

  • Private automobile
    • A study regarding the cost of owning a vehicle in Hawkins has been conducted in the past. The average cost for registering and maintaining a vehicle per trip is $1.50 (150 cents). This could be considered as the out of pocket cost for using a private automobile for all trips using this mode.
    • On average, parking takes 5 minutes in Hawkins.
    • Zone to zone average private automobile travel times are presented in Table 6.
  • Bus
    • The average waiting time for a bus service in Hawkins is 10 minutes.
    • Zone to zone average bus travel times are presented in Table 7 (note this includes time for access and transfer, if required).
    • Bus fares between zones are presented in Table 7 (signifying the out-of- pocket costs).
  • Metro Train
    • The average waiting time for a metro service in Hawkins is 2 minutes.
    • Zone to zone average metro train travel times are presented in Table 9 (note this includes time for access and transfer, if required).
    • Metro train fares between zones are presented in Table 10.
    • No intrazonal trips are made using this mode of transport.

Table6:Privateautomobiletraveltimematrix

Private Automobile Travel Times (mins)

Zone 1Zone 2Zone 3Zone 4
Zone 154109
Zone 2531218
Zone 31415815
Zone 41220149

Table7:Bustraveltimematrix

Bus Travel Times (mins)

Zone 1Zone 2Zone 3Zone 4
Zone 110121515
Zone 220112125
Zone 318202024
Zone 415252017

Table8:Busfarematrix(outofpocketcosts)

Bus Fares (cents)

Zone 1Zone 2Zone 3Zone 4
Zone 135405050
Zone 265407080
Zone 360656580
Zone 450806555

Table9:MetroTraintraveltimematrix

Metro Train Travel Times (mins)

Zone 1Zone 2Zone 3Zone 4
Zone 1
121826
Zone 215
614
Zone 3216
8
Zone 425148

Table10:MetroTrainfaresmatrix(outofpocketcosts)

Metro Train Fares (cents)

Zone 1Zone 2Zone 3Zone 4
Zone 1
40140180
Zone 265
100140
Zone 3140100
100
Zone 4180140100

A multinomial logit model is applied to quantify the mode choice between “private automobile”, “bus” and “metro train” within Hawkins. The calibrated utility function for all three modes has the structure presented in Equation 3;

𝑈𝑘 = 𝐴𝑘,𝒊𝒊 − 𝟎𝟎. 𝟑𝟑𝟎𝟎X𝟏𝟏,𝒊𝒊 − 𝟎𝟎. 𝟐𝟐𝟎𝟎X𝟐𝟐,𝒊𝒊 − 𝟎𝟎. 𝟐𝟐𝟏𝟏X𝟑𝟑 − 𝟎𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏X𝟎𝟎,𝒊𝒊 Equation 3 Where: 𝐴𝑘,𝑖𝑖 = Calibration constant, (𝐴𝑘,𝐶 = 𝟎𝟎,𝐴𝑘,𝐵 = −𝟎𝟎. 𝟎𝟎,𝐴𝑘,𝑀 = −𝟎𝟎. 𝟐𝟐 )

X1,𝑖𝑖 = Zone to zone waiting times for each mode of transport, “𝑖𝑖”

X2 = Zone to zone travel times for each mode of transport, “𝑖𝑖”

X3 = Parking time allocated for zone to zone travel (private automobile mode only)

X4 = Zone to zone “out of pocket costs” for each mode of transport, “𝑖𝑖”

  1. Using a spreadsheet application and the information above, determine theprobability of choosing “private automobile”, “bus” and “metro train” within Hawkins by applying the multinomial logit model. Clearly describe the steps inapplying the model and also any assumptions made and present final probability values using summary tables of zone to zone probabilities for each mode of transport.

(8 marks)

  1. Use your result from Problem 2 to determine the number of trips per mode for Hawkins. Similar to Problem 3 part a), present final trip numbers using summary tables of zone to zone trips for each mode of transport. What mode of transportconsists the most number of trips, is this logical given the base data provided?Comment on the validity of the results comparing the accessibility to eachmode and the demand estimated by the mode choice mode. Clearly explain your response.

(7 marks)

  1. Mayor Kline of Hawkins is disappointed with uptake of bus services in the community and has reorganised the budget to make buses free of charge (out of pocket cost = 0). What impact does this have on the mode choice? How many additional bustrips will be present based on an application of the multinomial logit model?Discuss (in point form) one advantage and one disadvantage of the mayor’s proposal from a transport operations and infrastructure perspective.

(5 marks)

  1. Given the proposed developments, Mayor Kline is also concerned about the number of private automobile trips that are occurring in Hawkins which can exacerbate the existing congestion levels. Therefore, in addition to the free bus service, the mayor announces congestion pricing which increases the “private automobile” out of pocket costs to $4.50 (450 cents) for trips entering or exiting the economic Zones of 3 and 4. What impact does this have on the mode choice? What are the new demandsfor each mode based on an application of the multinomial logit model? Discuss (in point form) one advantage and one disadvantage of the mayor’s proposal from a transport operations and infrastructure perspective.

(5marks)

Problem 4: Traffic Assignment (25 marks)

Main Street East and Main Street West are one-way roads within the CBD of Hawkins as shown in Figure 3. Eastbound traffic along Main Street can only use Main Street East to reach Hawkins Station and other land uses to the east of the CBD. Due to the development of Palace Arcade Hills, there will be further traffic demands placed on Main Street, and Mayor Kline is concerned about the traffic on Main Street, particularly in the Eastbound direction. A possible solution is to convert both Main Street East and Main Street West into two-way roads to increase road capacity.

Figure3:MapofrouteforEastboundTrafficalongMainStreet.

Table 11 presents the properties of each link in the existing network relevant to Eastbound travel along Main Street.

Table11: Linkproperties ofexisting infrastructure(𝗑𝐴 representsthelinkvolumeon link𝐴”)


Link

Road Name
Direction of TravelCapacity (veh/hr)Link Volume (veh/hr)Link Travel TimeLink Cost (travel time) Function (minutes)
1Main StreetEastbound1800𝑥1𝑡1𝑥1 𝑡1 = �180 � + 3 0
2Main Street EastEastbound1200𝑥2𝑡2𝑥2 𝑡2 = �120 � + 8 0
3Main StreetEastbound1800𝑥3𝑡3𝑥3 𝑡3 = �180 � + 3 0
4Main Street WestWestbound1200𝑥4𝑡4𝑥4 𝑡4 = �120 � + 8 0

The proposed change will allow Eastbound traffic to travel along Main Street West and also utilise Hawkins Highway northbound. However, the right turn from Main Street East into Hawkins Highway in the southbound direction will be banned due to safety concerns and excessive congestion southbound along Hawkins Highway.

Assess the traffic conditions and potential future traffic assignment for vehicles travelling Eastbound along Main Street.

  1. If the existing peak demand for Eastbound traffic along Main Street is 1200 vehicles/hour (for vehicles travelling from Node A to Node D), what are the currentlink and route travel times for journeys from Node A to Node D? What is thevolume to capacity ratio for each link of this journey? Is this currently aproblemforHawkins?Provide a clear statement and reasoning.

(5 marks)

  1. The forecasted Eastbound traffic demand along Main street is 1800 vehicles/hour (for vehicles travelling from Node A to Node D) once the proposed developments are completed , what will the future link and route travel times be for journeys fromNode A to Node D? What is the volume to capacity ratio of each link of thisjourney?WillitbeaproblemforHawkinsinthefuture?Provide a clear statement and reasoning.

(5 marks)

  1. In order to assess the proposal put forward by Mayor Kline where both Main Street East and Main Street West become two-way roads, it is necessary to collect further information about the network as in this context there will be more routes for users to choose. Table 12 presents the additional data required to make an assessment about the Eastbound traffic conditions. Node A is identical to Node A in Figure 3, however Node D is now labelled as Node F due to the change in infrastructure.

Draw the node and link network diagram given the information in Table 12 andidentify all possible routes that could be used by motorists travellingEastbound along Main Street. Note that looped routes (routes containing the same link twice) should not be considered.

(5 marks)

Table12: Linkpropertiesofproposed infrastructure (𝗑𝐴 represents thelinkvolumeonlink𝐴”)


Link Label

Node Label

Road Name

Direction of Travel

Capacity (veh/hr)
Link Volume (veh/hr)Link Travel TimeLink Cost (travel time) Function (minutes)
1A to BMain StreetEastbound1800𝑥1𝑡1𝑥1 𝑡1 = �180 � + 3 0
2B to CMain Street EastEastbound800𝑥2𝑡2𝑥2 𝑡2 = �80 � + 3.5 0
3B to DMain Street WestEastbound600𝑥3𝑡3𝑥3 𝑡3 = �60 � + 1.5 0
4C to EMain Street EastEastbound800𝑥4𝑡4𝑥4 𝑡4 = �80 � + 2 0
5D to EMain Street WestEastbound600𝑥5𝑡5𝑥5 𝑡5 = �60 � + 3.5 0
6E to FMain StreetEastbound1800𝑥6𝑡6𝑥6 𝑡6 = �180 � + 3 0
7D to CHawkins HighwayNorthbound2000𝑥7𝑡7𝑥7 𝑡7 = �200 � + 1 0
  1. Considering that the forecasted Origin to Destination demand remains as 1800 vehicles/hour for the time period being assessed, and using the principle of “User Equilibrium”, determinetheequilibriumconditionsbetween Node A and Node F.
    1. Clearly present all demand conservation equations and route travel time equilibrium equations. (3marks)
    2. Solve the system of equations and present link volumes, link travel times and route travel times under equilibrium conditions. Will the Mayor’s proposal improve future traffic conditions? Clearly justify your response taking into consideration travel time and any other important factors.

(7 marks)

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Cover Page Case Study – HR Activities title of assessment unit code unit name semester and year assignment title student name student number tutor name and word count Executive Summary The research suggests two main HR initiatives to help Actualise Health deal with its workforce issues: acquiring and developing talent,

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Script – Slide 1: Title and Introduction Greetings, everyone. My name is…, and I would like to discuss a vital concern in early childhood education – equality and inclusion. At present, I’m going to explain why this matter is so important and what research and guidelines indicate about it. Slide

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Solution: EQUITY AND INCLUSION IN EARLY CHILDHOOD IN AUSTRALIA

Written Policy Recommendation Name: Student Number: Email: Date: Introduction: The early years of a child’s life are important for their holistic development, making early childhood education a foundation for their future accomplishments. Nevertheless, guaranteeing equality and inclusion in early childhood education stays a major problem in our society. This policy

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The focus of this Expression of Interest is to demonstrate why you are a good fit for the selected project based on your learning in IKC101.Context:You are submitting an Expression of Interest (EOI) to lead a project connected to the organisation you have chosen. You are required to explain your

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COM10007 Professional Communication Practice

Assignment 3: PresentationWord/time limit: Five minutes (+/- 10%)Weighting: 15% (Presentation + reference list)Assignment detailsFor this assignment, you are required to consider those who work in the following sectors and describe the key responsibilities of a professional communicator in a particular context—including types of audiences, key messages and delivery modes. You

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This assessment covers 30% of the marks for this module. Instructions   Case 1 Vivienne A. (mother) and Isabel A. (daughter) go to the GP for prolonged fatigue in the last four months. Vivienne is a retired 74-year-old teacher, who reports fatigue, tingling and numbness in her hands and feet,

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Assignment Legislative Framework for Governance

It’s now time to complete your assessment. At Level 5, you must demonstrate that you can follow academic writing standards, including checking your writing for spelling and grammar, referencing using Harvard referencing (or similar) guidelines and utilising critical analysis skills. If you are unsure about these, speak to your Advanced

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Guidance document: Tips for Individual report assessment BIK0028/BIH2014 Individual report Assessment Assessment brand of your choice. rarity, extraordinariness and a high degree of non-functional associations” (Heine, 2012, p.62). Your work should include the following •       A brief introduction to the selected brand characteristics etc.) •       Your analysis of consumers’ behaviour

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