
Project Risk Management (QUAL11019)
Coursework: Monte Carlo Simulation
Mark Sheet: Spreadsheet & Presentation
Spreadsheet | |||
Section/Criteria | Comments | Out of | Mark |
Calculation of expected profits for both batch sizes. The model should include: Costs (both/total); expected demand (based on probability distribution); actual sales (this has to be corrected if demand exceeds batch size); Correct expected profits (including summary statistics and histogram). Appropriate number of repetitions (more than 100). Versions of the model for each batch size. | Not correct depiction- no graphs. Did not get which batch is profitable. | 20 | 8 |
Expected project duration time and recommended start date. Model should include all activity times plus the overall expected duration for the project – including summary statistics and a histogram. (The range of possible durations should be spread from about 100 To 200 days.) | Sd, mean, max and min expected time are incorrect. | 20 | 12 |
Discussion about technical issues: number of repetitions, etc. An excellent answer would compare the results for different numbers of repetitions. It would also include a plot of the sample data and refer to the use of probability distributions used in the models (might question whether the Normal distribution is suitable.) | This wasn’t done properly. Although giving marks for attempt | 15 | 3 |
Presentation | 0 | 0 | |
Comparisons/recommended batch size. For a small batch size (4000 – 5000) expected profits are relatively low, but there is little chance of making a loss. For a large batch size (>6000) expected maximum profits are larger but there is also a chance of making a loss. The presentation should explain and compare these outcomes clearly. (Final decision should take into account the company’s risk capacity and appetite.) | No explanation and only 1-2 slides are provided | 15 | 5 |
Comparisons/recommended start date. Answer should compare the possible outcomes, depending on the project start date: – the products are ready early and need storing, or they are late, the worst case scenario. (Again, decision should refer to risk capacity and appetite – there is no optimal solution.) | It is required an explanation, notes etc. Slides are not self- explanatory. | 15 | 10 |
Communicating and explaining uncertainty. Good to start with some introduction to the purpose of Monte Carlo simulation. Make effort to fully explain uncertain outcomes. Use of interesting and appropriate graphics (labelled graphs, tree diagrams, icons etc.) | Not provided | 10 | 0 |
Video recording. Should be clear, professional, involve the whole group and support the slides. | Not provided | 10 | 0 |
Overall Comment & Total Marks | 100 | 38 |

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