Scenario planning in the COVID-19 environment

PART B: Answer the TWO (2) questions in Part B. Both questions are of equal value. Scenario planning in the COVID-19 environment:

For many industries the future remains uncertain due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While the development of vaccines is welcome, the timing of vaccine inoculations for the community and their effectiveness against new variants of the virus is unclear.

 In this environment, how organisations consider workforce planning is also uncertain. Therefore, organisations must plan for multiple scenarios and time horizons to enable them to confront likely future product market and labour market conditions. While workforce planning options that respond to a “recovery scenario” need to be developed, they are likely to be notably different from the workforce planning options in the pre-COVID scenario.

Assuming the “recovery scenario” is to happen, scenario planning in such circumstances could simply mean a return to a “back to normal scenario” (i.e. the pre-COVID situation), or adapting to a “new normal scenario” where ongoing public health regulations continue to place restrictions on how people behave and how organisations operate.

Workforce planning for either a “back to normal scenario” or a “new normal scenario” should evaluate: (i) any changes in consumer demand for the products (good and services) in the relevant industry; (ii) any alteration in the demand for labour, and the types of labour, in the relevant industry; and (iii) how the economic recovery will impact workforce planning options for organisations in the relevant industry as they seek to match labour demand with labour supply. Consider an industry or industry sector you are familiar with.

• What might be a post-COVID “back to normal scenario” for that industry or industry sector?

• What might be a post-COVID “new normal scenario” for that industry or industry sector?

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